The US dollar index this week has taken a decent fall, as it well & truly confirms that the bullish uptrend is over, finishing the week at just above 96. The index has now made a series of lower highs and lower lows, whilst already breaching its uptrend from Sep 18 this week.
 
In the short term, I’m looking for a short term bounce soon as it retraces eventually to form another lower high, most likely at the 96.70 resistance, or as high as 97 given the strong move this week. In addition the US dollar index is now sitting on the lower bound of the downtrend channel.

After we see a retracement move, I’m looking to see the index to continue to make lower as it heads towards the strong support level of 95 over the medium term. If the move continues to make lower highs it will set up some strong moves ahead for Gold soon.

Gold has surprised many traders & investment banks, especially those that had recently held short positions again the yellow metal. Gold’s strong move this month has certainly got the markets attention now, but the bigger moves have not even started yet for Gold.
 
Over the next few weeks I’m expecting to see a retracement in line with a move higher in the short term for the US dollar index. Gold is in need of a consolidation on both the daily & weekly charts, with a likely move towards $1,350 level. Of course it all depends on whether Geopolitical tensions over Iran & US settle down this week.

Looking forward ahead for Gold, after we see one to few weeks of consolidation, I’m expecting big moves for Gold as its just broken out of 6+ year consolidation period on the weekly chart. At a conservative level I’m looking for Gold to at least retest its $1,900 highs made in 2001.

Given the intentions of the FED now and other central banks for the remainder of 2019 & 2020 towards monetary policy, its quite foreseeable that Gold moves beyond $2,000 USD over the longer term. I have added the next few resistance levels to watch over the medium term.

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Copper continues to remain under pressure as it sits close to the lows reached at the start of Jan 19. The price action is in a consolidation sideways pattern over the last two weeks, as Copper prices in a slowing weak global economy.
 
This contrasts with US stocks over the last two weeks that has seen a large bounce off its recent lows on the prospects that Powell & the FED are now looking cutting rates in 2019. The prospect of rate cuts is inflationary for hard assets, however Copper is not buying this premise at least for now.

Currently the price action for Copper is sitting between 26,680 resistance & 25,940 support. In addition the price is respecting its downtrend line as well. So moving forward we would need to see a clear breakout above both 26,680 & 27,135 resistance, before we see Copper following the bullishness of US stocks. Given the weakness its more likely we see the price move towards 25,940 soon.

Platinum's price action is showing a close resemblance to Copper's price action, as it also has not seen any recent bounce in the last two weeks of trading, while also hovering near its lows reached In Dec 18 & Feb 19.
 
Why this is relevant is because Platinum is utilized in multiple industrial applications in multiple industries within the manufacturing process. So just like Copper, the price action of Platinum at the beginning of the year saw a decent rally and new uptrend formed as the markets were pricing optimism on the global economy based on a trade deal being struck between the US & China.
 
Now the deal has collapsed, the price action has collapsed along with the deal. Platinum is also in a consolidation pattern as it currently is respecting $800 support after hitting $820 resistance last week. Given that global economic macro data remains weak as global trade slows, it likely like copper we see lower prices in the short term.

So if we see a break of $800 support, look for a move towards $780. If we see a move above $820 in the coming weeks, followed by a close above the 52 day moving average price of $845 - $850, then this would indicate a shift in optimism for the global economy.

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Last week price action for US stocks was remarkable from the start to the end of the week. On Monday we saw US stocks gapped lower on the threat of tariffs on Mexico by Trump. With each trading day we saw weak or negative economic news being released in the US. Yet what we saw was stocks were no longer moving lower. By the end of the week on Friday we had US Non-farm payrolls released and it was a massive miss, coming in at 75k new jobs instead of 177k estimates, but it didn’t matter. By the end of the day stocks continued to move higher, as it followed the momentum of buying that started from Tuesday. So why successive pieces of negative news & economic data being released did the S&P 500 index form a bullish engulfing pattern on increasing volume? The answer in one word is: FED.
 
Last week Mr Powell held its monthly press conference and the general point of the commentary by Powell was that the FED would do what is required to keep growth going in the US. Which the market interpreted as the FED is about to start cutting rates, with the likely hood of several cuts to come by the end of 2019. The reaction by the market was swift, as we saw the US dollar index roll over and break its uptrend, while Gold shot up this week over $100 an ounce as the market digested another pivot by the FED moving forward. Which is why I realized this week that this lows reached at the beginning of the week was likely to be the lowest prices we will see moving forward for the rest of the year.

Looking at the price action of the weekly chart for the SPX index, you can see that we have confirmed another higher low was formed, as the most recent low close was still above the lows reached back in the first week of March this year. This confirms on a weekly chart that the buyers are still in control of US stocks. The other interesting thing is that volume on the previous two weeks of falling prices was below the average volume for the index. With this week bullish engulfing candle stick pattern was formed on slightly above average volume, which also confirms the bullishness of the move.

This week I would be looking to see if there is follow through for the week in higher prices to close the week, to support the bullish pattern. If there is follow though its possible, we could see a move towards 2,930 resistance level either this week. If we see follow through buying then the likely support on a retracement is 2,873-75 level to look for in coming weeks. If we on the other hand see this move as a failed move, then prices would need to move back towards 2,785 support. However this is unlikely now the FED has given the green light for stocks to move higher regardless of how back the economy is. Well at least for now that is.
 
Lastly on a more of longer term look ahead, given the outlook of the FED and the interesting price action for US stocks, it would not surprise me at all if we see new all-time highs reached in the coming weeks or at the least next few months.

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The Aussie index XJO has resilient over the last month as they have been outperforming US stocks, having received a few key tail winds with a pro-business re-election in the Federal Government, an attempt for the Government agencies to loosen credit standards and the RBA giving its strongest indication they are prepared to cut rates soon with multiple cuts now priced in by the market.
 
So its not surprising that the pullback so far for the XJO has been relatively mild, having finished the month respecting its old resistance level now support area around the 6,360 level. Since the XJO price action has been in up trend, the respect of its most recent support so far is positive for the index to remain in trend.

Looking ahead for June we have to be watching to see if a few key bullish points change for the XJO. The index has been comfortably creating higher lows indicating the bulls are still in control of the Aussie index. If we see further pullbacks with international markets volatility, its important that we hold the uptrend line around 6,300 level as a first line of defense.
 
If the uptrend level around 6,300 fails for the XJO, then we need to watch if the price action closes below the 6,220-30 support level. If this occurs this would be the first lower low in 2019 and would signal uncertainty as the bulls would have lost control. If this is followed up by a lower high formed in June, then it would be time to start to be bearish Aussie stocks. However for now there is no reason to not remain bullish, for the XJO index despite the pullback experienced.

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