The Nasdaq 100, which is the strongest of the main US stock indices finally broke its 2019 uptrend on Friday, as Trump was able to feed massive uncertainty in the markets, as investors lost complete confidence in Trump & most likely any hopes for the US to avoid a recession.
 
Leading up to Friday's shocking sell off in US stocks, the muted rally we saw during last week of small moves higher was in fact made on terribly low volume, which is considerable below the daily average.
 
The low volume during a move higher in trend, was similar to the slow run higher in July 19 to new all-time highs. This was also just before a strong sell off on increased volume that occurred. If you’re paying attention this would have been a big red flag for traders & investors.
 
Another red flag for the Nasdaq 100, is that we have confirmed a lower high and lower low signaling a change in control from buyers to sellers in the daily charts.

Looking ahead for the Nasdaq 100, the support area of 7,400 is the last final confirmation required from the market before we can confirm a change of trend. Therefore Monday's trading is super important for short term direction for the Nasdaq especially if we clearly close below this area. A breach of 7,400 support would indicate the next support level of 7,025 for the Nasdaq 100
 
Lastly unless there is some miracle from the Central Banks with more intervention, and we see a big shift in bullishness. With the Nasdaq 100 somehow jumping back above its uptrend line and above the 52 day moving average (green line).  We are likely looking at the start of the end of the bull market in US stocks.

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Apple share price finds itself in a rather interesting position on the weekly chart. If you take a look at the price action from the start of the 2019 you will notice its uptrend, with the price above the 52 weekly moving average, with higher lows formed.
 
However if you step back on longer time frame and view the chart you will notice that since December 2018 when Apple broke below the long term uptrend line, it has failed to move back above this trend on a consistent basis. In addition the price action has been bouncing off a large triangle pattern on the weekly chart for a third time.

If this were to fail and the price action broke to the downside this would be quite bearish for Apple & US stocks as the weighting of Apple would drag down the Nasdaq & S&P500. When observing triangle patterns the price action usually breaks in the direction of the trend, so this means the odds suggests that Apple either this week or in the coming weeks will break the current triangle pattern to the upside.

To confirm this a clear break of $212 resistance would need to occur. If this happens we will likely see a move towards $228 resistance. Based on the likely odds, this would also mean that the SPX index would hold its most recent bounce off the 200 day moving average and confirm a higher low, with a likely move to another higher high and new all time record high in the SPX.
 
Therefore the next few weeks will be critical for Apple investors & US stocks overall and likely dictate the trend going forward in the medium term for stocks.

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The Aussie stock index XJO last week broke a key uptrend that had been in place since the start of 2019. The index was able to see a recovery during the week, however unlike the US stock indices the XJO index did not recover back above the uptrend line that it failed.
 
So we can confirm that Aussie stocks are looking weak at the moment. However, is it time to go bearish with the latest price action? When it comes to trading, we have to be fluid and open to new information as it comes to make good decisions on likely direction.
 
We have covered the breach of the uptrend, however there are other problems for the bulls. Its sitting below the 10 & 52 day moving average, telling me stocks are under pressure & have lost momentum. The gains we saw since mid week were relatively small moves higher relative to the down days we saw leading into the breach of the uptrend.

Lastly, another interesting red flag for the XJO I covered with members after the Friday close, is that we have closed below the 10 week moving average for the first time in this uptrend rally (see chart below). This usually means that a trend has either ended or is about to end when I see this.

Going forward from here we could be witnessing a change of trend, however for now I have not gone bearish. For my stance to change and go bearish I need to see a confirmed lower high formed, with the 52 day MA turning down. In addition the price action ideally stays below the uptrend line. Lastly if we see a close below the lows recorded last week then I will be bearish Aussie stocks.
 
So for now we have to go with a day by day approach as we wait and see if the other conditions are satisfied. Especially as its possible with earnings season occurring this month that we resume a bullish structure.

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