Gold has been on an epic run over the last few months. Since it was able to breakout out of the 7+ year sideways consolidation back in early June. The price hasnt looked back. The last few weeks has seen Gold pull back off its 2019 highs as it consolidates the big moves. Recently the $1,488 support was tested however was able to hold just above it.
 
Last week Gold finished at close to the high's of the week as volatility returned to both stocks and bonds on Friday helping lift Gold back to $1,516. Looking ahead for the price action, the strong uptrend is looking bullish for the medium to long term for future price gains for the metal.
 
On a shorter time frame I'm expecting a further consolidation / sideways range for a few more weeks above $1,488 level of support, as the 52 weekly moving average (green line) can catch up some of the distance its made with the strong three month rally. Of course my expectations for further consolidation ahead is based on no global flare ups that could see another massive move in the price of Gold. For example if the Repo overnight funding market in the US worsens and the spreads start to spike again then its possible we could see Gold move back to the 2019 highs in the next few weeks.

Assuming there isn't any such events on the financial markets and Gold has had a chance to consolidate further in a sideways range of prices, then I would then expect to see a move some time in October towards $1,560 resistance.
 
On a longer term horizon for Gold for the remainder of the year I expect Gold to make new 2019 highs as it gets closer to its old record highs around $1900. Given the growing use of QE from Central Banks to tackle the slowing global economy I expect Gold to make new nominal highs and take out the old high in 2020. However for the short term we need to be more patient as we get much needed consolidation for the next leg higher.

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Crude Oil has broken out of its downtrend, jumping over 8% today after the Geo-political event over the weekend has effected a material amount of global supply of Oil. At this stage its unclear how long it will take to get supply back online.
 
So given this terrible event occurring does this mean we will see Oil retest its old highs over $100 USD a barrel? The short answer is it depends on what happens next. Will there be a retaliation for the attack and what will Oil producing countries do in the short term to deal with potential supply issues. 
 
So What Does The Charts Say?  
 
The charts are showing us that Crude Oil is clearly outside of its downtrend line sitting above its 10 & 52 day moving average indicating its now in a bullish stance. Currently its sitting just above $59.15 support after earlier breaching multiple resistance levels. If $59.15 support can hold today and for the remainder of the week, this would be quite bullish for Oil.

However if Geo political events settle down for the remainder of the week, its quite possible we see a move back down to $57.30 support. Given the quite large rejection tail today, it appears for now at least the market doesn’t see considerably higher prices. But this can change very quickly if events escalate globally.
 
If we were to see a move above $60.90 resistance, that can hold these levels, then its certainly possible we will begin to move closer $63 levels and higher. Its important to note that global demand for Oil is slowing so any moves higher will be short term in nature based on disruptions in current & potential future Oil supplies.
 
So at least for the next few weeks its likely to be quite volatile for Crude Oil markets as the market digest all the available information that comes online.

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Last week we saw the S&P 500 finally breakout of its sideways channel direction (green box) as news reports that China & US are back to talking again and are preparing to meet at the end of the month. The theory is that hopefully after over a year they somehow come to some sort of agreement. However interestingly the recent rally we saw last week for US stocks has been on below average volume as shown on the chart. Whenever I see this it tells me to be weary of any move seen. In other words its a red flag and can’t be relied upon as a trader.
 
Looking at the daily chart of the S&P 500, we can agree the positives is that it broke out of the box and is now trading above the 52 day moving average, which are bullish signals. On the other hand the price action has been hitting the original uptrend line, however as a resistance level rather than as a support level as seen back in June 19. Add in low average volumes overall on this spike higher and the weight of evidence isn’t totally in favor of the bulls.

Looking ahead for the week for the S&P 500 index, I'm looking to see if the price action can finally jump back above the long-term uptrend which it hasn’t been able to achieve yet. If we see a pullback this week to the support area of 2,940 and hold, this would be the ideal for the bulls. If it was then followed by a strong move higher with above average volume back inside the uptrend line either this week or next then I would agree that the S&P 500 will be heading for new record highs in coming weeks and months.
 
Given that the ECB are meeting this week to most likely introduce more QE & other stimulus, followed up by the FED next week for the FOMC. These two big events should keep US stocks elevated. However watch out for a wild card (Ie Trump tariff / trade tweet) and a move back under 2,940 area and back inside the green box this week, even though this is an unlikely scenario.

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