The Aussie Dollar appears to of made another breakout attempt out of its long term downtrend on the weekly chart. Despite a rate cut by the RBA last week sending the cash rate to a historic low of 1.00%, with more expected for the remainder of the year, the AUDUSD actually rose on the rate cut day. It proceeded to move higher during the week, only to fall strongly on Friday on the US jobs number, which created only a small pullback for the weekly chart after the prior breakout of the downtrend.
 
The important question going forward though is whether this breakout move is the start of a bigger move higher, or its just another false breakout signal for traders. Looking at the technicals for the weekly chart, you will notice the 52 week moving average is sloping lower, whilst the price action is trading below the 52 week moving average.
 
In addition the price action for now has not traded back above the 70.30 resistance area, which would signal a confirmed move out of the downtrend if it was to move above 70.30. This means, similar to the false breakout we saw back in March 2019, we have to wait & see what the price action does over the next few weeks to gain a clearer understanding on what’s happening for the AUDUSD.

To even consider being bullish on the Aussie dollar on a medium to long term basis on the weekly chart, we need to see clear higher lows, that consolidate above both 70.30 & 71.70 resistance areas in the coming weeks and months. If we this was to occur it would allow the 52 week moving average to begin to swing around eventually, providing positive momentum signal for a sustained move higher.
 
Since none of the confirming technical’s for a sustained move higher has occurred for now, the odds are in the favor of the bears. So its possible this could be another false breakout, however we would need to see a move back below the downtrend line to confirm this, with an initial target of 68.30 support if this was to occur.

Join the Investing & Trading Community At Guruhaven 

If you enjoyed this review of Aussie Dollar AUD/USD, that was originally posted for members at Guruhaven, you can join the community free to receive regular macro news, trading ideas, original trading content, chart reviews from Crush The Market and the Guruhaven community of traders and investors.

Simply visit Guruhaven using referral code: Crush19 by http://guruhaven.com/membership

If you would like to take a look at this week newsletter which includes three special guest posts as well as the best posts on Guruhaven covering USD, GLD, SLV, SPX, DXY, TLT and more, simply for the link  http://bit.ly/GuruHaven_WNL17

Disclaimer: Please note all information presented here at Crushthemarket.com, Guruhaven weekly newsletter and within the Guruhaven.com website and its community platform are presented for educational purposes only,  and does not represent financial advice in any way. If you require financial advice please seek a licensed advisor who can provide these services.

The Aussie index XJO has resilient over the last month as they have been outperforming US stocks, having received a few key tail winds with a pro-business re-election in the Federal Government, an attempt for the Government agencies to loosen credit standards and the RBA giving its strongest indication they are prepared to cut rates soon with multiple cuts now priced in by the market.
 
So its not surprising that the pullback so far for the XJO has been relatively mild, having finished the month respecting its old resistance level now support area around the 6,360 level. Since the XJO price action has been in up trend, the respect of its most recent support so far is positive for the index to remain in trend.

Looking ahead for June we have to be watching to see if a few key bullish points change for the XJO. The index has been comfortably creating higher lows indicating the bulls are still in control of the Aussie index. If we see further pullbacks with international markets volatility, its important that we hold the uptrend line around 6,300 level as a first line of defense.
 
If the uptrend level around 6,300 fails for the XJO, then we need to watch if the price action closes below the 6,220-30 support level. If this occurs this would be the first lower low in 2019 and would signal uncertainty as the bulls would have lost control. If this is followed up by a lower high formed in June, then it would be time to start to be bearish Aussie stocks. However for now there is no reason to not remain bullish, for the XJO index despite the pullback experienced.

Join the Investing & Trading Community At Guruhaven 

If you enjoyed this review of the Aussie Stock Index XJO, that was originally posted for members at Guruhaven, you can join the community free to receive regular macro news, trading ideas, original trading content, chart reviews from Crush The Market and the Guruhaven community of traders and investors.

Simply visit Guruhaven using referral code: Crush19 by http://guruhaven.com/membership

If you would like to take a look at this week newsletter of some of the best posts on Guruhaven covering GOOG, TLT, HYG, DXY, GLD, BTC, QQQ, BA and more, simply for the link http://bit.ly/GuruHaven_WNL_14

Disclaimer: Please note all information presented here at Crushthemarket.com, Guruhaven weekly newsletter and within the Guruhaven.com website and its community platform are presented for educational purposes only,  and does not represent financial advice in any way. If you require financial advice please seek a licensed advisor who can provide these services.

The top 200 largest stock index in Australia (XJO200) has run into long term resistance in May as it failed to breach the 5925 level. After hitting the resistance level late April and early May the XJO index has fallen around 200 points from the recent high of 5925.

Since forming a double top and confirming the reversal lower in May, the XJO index of the top 200 largest stocks is set to continue to fall further as it takes a breather from the recent strong run over the last 12 months. The road ahead for the index isnt clear as a number of major headwinds are approaching making further gains difficult.

Monthly Chart Review

Can The XJO Breakout Of The 5925 Resistance Level?

From a number of technical indicators the XJO index is likely to pause from its recent strong rally higher as it runs into some exhaustion within its uptrend.

Since the the XJO index is in a uptrend that has been running for a number of years as shown in the chart below, its likely that the index will head lower towards its long term uptrend around the 5525 which is its first level of support. If the index continues on its reversal lower towards support it could be several months before we see the chance for the index to make another run higher towards 5925.

XJO Headwinds - Potential For A Break Of Long Term Uptrend

The momentum indicators are supporting a move lower over the next few months leading into earnings season in Australia. In addition the slow stochastic is approaching its peak upper level on the monthly chart and about to cross lower. If the slow stochastic crosses over like it did back in March 2015 (See chart below), we would most likely see considerable correction in the XJO index over a 12+month period resulting in a break of if its long term uptrend. If this was to occur the only thing that could potentially reverse the move lower would be consecutive drops in interest rates by the RBA and or Government stimulus.

Australia's Macro Headwinds Could End The Long Term Uptrend

The other headwind facing Aussie stocks for the remainder of the year and 2018, comes from the macro picture in Australia, as the slowdown of the real estate market has begun with prices starting to fall in Sydney and Melbourne in May (See article below). The property boom up until recently has been driving the economy and a large part of the GDP growth. However this appears to be over as a number of interest rates from the banks, has finally stopped the strong real estate growth in prices. Together with construction boom spending now falling as the banks continue to tighten lending standards likely to slow the economy as well.

Below is a few recent articles outlining the headwinds stocks, real estate and the economy are facing over the coming months.

Weekly Chart Review

The weekly chart of the XJO shows a similar story to the monthly chart, with the index making a double top as well as the momentum indicators falling as the buying spree reaches exhaustion within the XJO index.

The only difference with the momentum indicators is that momentum has turned negative sitting at -62.2 and the slow stochastic has turned several weeks ago and looks to continue to move lower of the next  few weeks.

On the weekly chart I would look out for a pull back in prices, potentially to the target area drawn on the chart around support of 5570. The key to watch is if the XJO index breaks down further closing below the blue uptrend line on the weekly chart.

If the weekly uptrend (blue line within target area) is broken all bets are off as we could see a move down all the way to around 5000 over the next few months.

Add in the earnings season which starts in late July, there is potential for a lot more volatility over the next 3 months.

Remember to share this with your friends by clicking on the Facebook & Twitter Icon's Below.

Make sure you Subscribe to Crush The Market - Choosing from the 4 options: 

Email - Subscribe at bottom of page.   OR

Facebook, Twitter or RSS Feed on the top right side toolbar for latest posts and market updates.

If you would like to view my most recent macro article on the US economy click the link below:

Rising Rates About To Crack The US Economy Under Record Debt Levels

To view my most recent Stock review  click the link below:

Telstra Goes From Bad To Terrible As It Closes Below Long Term Support

Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only, and all the information contained within this post is not to be considered as advice or a recommendation of any kind. If you require advice or assistance please seek a licensed professional who can provide these services.

Thank You For Your Support

I would like to personally thank all the viewers of Crush The Market.

Crush The Market has been running for only a couple of months now and already I have received so much support, with followers sharing/liking posts.

Without you the viewers, there would be no Crush The Market, so thanks for providing the opportunity to share my thoughts and ideas to you in 2016.

I would like to also wish everyone Happy Holidays and a safe and relaxing time off over this period.

Holiday Reading / Entertainment

For any one who may of missed a previous macro article or wants to refresh on some of Crush The Market 2016 macro posts you can view them below:

The Perfect Storm Set To Pop Aussie Apartment Bubble Bringing The Economy Down With It

Surging Bond Yields Signalling Pain Not Growth Ahead For US Economy

US Economy Continues To Weaken As Warning Signs Flash Recession Ahead

How We Lost Control Of The Real Economy By Trying To Control Everything

Global Real Estate Bubble Begins To Pop Like Dominoes

Macro Views On the US and Global Economy - Peter Schiff

One of my favourite places I visit weekly for macro views on the US and Global Economy is the Peter Schiff Channel.

If your not familar with Peter Schiff and would like to check it out click below:

www.youtube.com/user/SchiffReport

Remember to share this with your friends & colleagues by clicking on the Facebook & Twitter Icon's Below.

If you have done so already to Subscribe to Crush The Market click on the 3 options:  Facebook, Twitter or RSS Feed on the top right side toolbar.

The Aussie apartment boom that has turned into an epic bubble with record sky high prices, is showing all the signs for the perfect storm which will ultimately pop the apartment boom bubble. With the popping of the apartment boom, it will simultaneously bring down the Australian economy, as the apartment market is set to have a sizeable correction in 2017 and 2018.

A short Look At Australia's Real Estate Market.

Australian real estate prices have been going up for over 25 years with hardly a pause in between since the late 80's. The last time real estate prices fell considerably was when Australia last had an official economic recession back in 1987, when interest rates skyrocketed to around 17-18%.

The chart below show the price growth of real estate, rents and CPI since mid 1987. Initially the price growth of Australia's real estate market climbed steadily taking 11 years to double in 1988. From there the price growth continued to accelerate with the next 100% increase in price taking 4.5 years to reach.

An interesting observation on the chart below is that real estate prices have risen by over 700% since 1987, yet rents have risen  just under 300% over the same period. This chart clearly shows that the majority of the price growth was not supported by a fundamental increase in rents to support the higher prices, but rather an massive surge in mortgage debt over the same period drove prices higher.

Rising Credit Leads To Booms & Contractions In Credit Lead to Busts

Professor Steve Keen in the interview shown below highlights his own reasons why he see's a recession coming in 2017 for Australia.

Steve highlights a number of reasons for his prediction, including a deteriorating terms of trade, the ending of the mining investment boom, the Government's pursuit to cut spending and a reduction in foreign buyers for real estate among others. However, the most important reason is a deceleration of credit / mortgage debt. Based on Steve's research and economic models the deceleration of mortgage debt growth is the leading cause for all economic downturns globally including the US, Japan and Europe economic recessions, with a correlation close to -1. What all his research showed is with the deceleration of mortgage debt growth, lead to a collapse in real estate prices which then lead to an economic recession in those countries.

Due to this research, Steve believes Australia will react the same way as other countries based on slowing growth in mortgage debt. Especially, as the conditions have already begun to slow based on the bank's tightening their standards overall. However, most of the lending restrictions imposed from the banks are for off the plan apartments and existing apartments within most major cities around Australia.

Given Australia was recently ranked number 4 in the world in the UBS global real estate bubble index, see: Australia's debt addiction fuels record real estate bubble, its easy to see that prices could fall over 20% as lending conditions continue to tighten and their effects take hold.

Why Are Banks Tightening Lending Conditions With Record Real Estate Prices?

The simple reason is that the banks do not want to be caught in a credit crunch like they faced back in 2008 and 2009 where they had to have the RBA and the US FED provide considerable financial assistance to keep them afloat.

Right now the banks can see what everyone else can see if you look at all the data publicly available. Australia will face a major oversupply of apartment dwellings over the next 1 - 3 years from a major ramp up of approvals of apartments. The growth of approvals over the last 7 years which you can see in the chart below, is leading to a big jump in the construction of apartments with a number of them being competed in the next 18 months.

Due to the rapid increase in approvals there has been a massive spike of cranes currently being deployed in Australia, to handle the apartment boom that is currently taking place. As you can see below in the chart Sydney and Melbourne are leading the way in Australia, dwarfing most major cities in the US including New York and LA.

With all the current construction for apartments taking place from the buildup of approvals, especially in the last 3 years, Australia is facing a glut of new apartments that are about to be completed in 2017 and 2018.

Knowing the upcoming glut of apartment completions is about to come available on the market soon, the banks have taken action to protect their capital by providing most of their tightening around new and existing apartments within the CBD's of Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane where most of the construction has taken place.

Highest Housing Completions = Biggest Housing Price Fall

The chart below shows a comparison of house prices in Australia, UK, Spain, US and Ireland with an accompanying housing completions chart.

The most obvious data from the chart is both Ireland and Spain had the biggest fall in prices during the GFC in 2008 relative to the other countries shown. Those 2 countries also had the largest ramp up of new housing completed from 2000 - 2007.

Surging Bond Yields Leads To Higher Mortgage Rates In Australia.

Back in October US Government 10 yr bond yields were sitting at around 1.55%. Fast forward one month and rates are now sitting at around 2.3%.  A 0.8% increase from the October levels (see chart below). The reason why this is a big deal, is that the US Government bond yields are what are utilized to benchmark most of the different types of retail and commercial loans.

In Australia the banks also rely heavily on overseas markets and especially the US markets to provide the necessary funding to support their loan book. So as bond yields have skyrocketed in such a short period in the US, it has already led to the banks in Australia lifting rates by between 0.20% - 0.60% on their fixed loans as their funding costs have jumped dramatically.

With mortgage rates rising and lending conditions being tightened its becoming more difficult for developers to sell their off the plan apartments as investors find it more difficult to access bank lending to finance their purchases, resulting in a slump in demand for off the plan apartments.

Melbourne Developer Offers $21,000 To Encourage Buyers

In an attempt to lure buyers to a new off the plan development in Melbourne, a large well known developer is now offering $21,000 to investors in an attempt to sell their $420,000 1 br apartments in Southbank Melbourne. The idea is to match the investor or first time buyer's 5% deposit of $21,000 to  least assist them in meeting a 10% deposit.

The problem that this Melbourne developer and other developers will find, is even with this huge financial incentive, many of the banks in Australia have lifted their minimum deposit requirements for off the plan apartments in major cities to between 15% - 25% deposit.

Apartment Bubble Bursting Leading To Australian Recession

Similar to Professor Steve Keen's prediction that a recession is coming to Australia in 2017 or early 2018, I also believe that the perfect storm of conditions are developing that will soon pop the apartment bubble that has been taking place in Australia.

When the correction in apartment prices takes hold, it will have a domino effect on the Australian economy, leading to a contraction in economic activity in Australia. The reason for this is because the real estate industry and related industries now has the largest contribution to GDP at around 28%. (See chart below)

With record amount of apartment construction taking place over the last few years, fueling a considerable amount of GDP growth, I believe the slowing of the construction industry will start to subtract heavily on GDP growth in 2017 and 2018 leading to Australia's first recession in over 25 years.

Thanks for viewing Crush The Market latest post.

Remember to share this with your friends by clicking on the Facebook & Twitter Icon's Below.

To Subscribe to Crush The Market click on the 3 options:  Facebook, Twitter or RSS Feed on the top right side toolbar.

Additional Sources: 

www.afr.com - 1
www.afr.com - 2  - Subscription required

The US election results overnight stunned the mainstream media, wall street, world markets and millions of people around the globe. After initially falling sharply on the news, the markets eventually recovered and moved to finish higher as the mood turned from fear to bullishness.

Once the markets saw that Donald Trump moved to the lead early in the election results, the markets around the globe began to panic as the DOW futures was down over 800 points, the S&P 500 futures was down 5%, Gold jumped up over $50 and currencies moved violently as the odds turned to Trump becoming the new President.

Markets 180 Degree Reversal.

Once the S&P 500 futures fell by 5% the index automatically went to limit down, and temporarily stopped trading. Once trading resumed the S&P 500 futures began to slowly climb as the limit down measures meant the index could no longer fall more than the 5% level for the trading day.

Once the S&P 500 began to climb with the DOW, the massive fear that was gripping the markets slowly moved to cautioned optimism as the markets slowly crawled back the losses. By the time Trump was giving his President elect speech early in the morning US time, the DOW had recovered to be down 300 points. By the end of the trading day in the US with the results in for the new President the equity markets swung to a strong gain for the day.

S&P 500

The chart below shows that initially when the markets opened that the S&P 500 fell to the support level of 2125 before slowly climbing during the day for a big swing towards an up day closing at 2163.

Since momentum is now back into the positive and the S&P 500 closed above the 2157 resistance level the next target is 2190 which is back to it's all time highs for the broad US equity index.

US 10 Yr Govt Bond

One of the interesting swings in the markets overnight was in the bond markets. During the initial fear stages of the market the US 10 yr Govt bond yields fell all the way down to 1.70 level as investors moved into bonds bidding up bonds as the selling accelerated out of stock futures.

Like the equities market the bond market began to turn around and swing from a 1.70% yield on the 10 year to as high as 2.09% jumping by 20 basis points by the end of trade. Currently the 10 yr is sitting at 2.005 level.

The previous resistance level which is now support is around the 1.97/98 level, with the next resistance level for the US 10 yr Govt bond at 2.13%.

Lastly you can see that since June of this year that bond yields have been climbing since reaching the low 1.30's level and have broken its downtrend on a daily chart.

Crude Oil

Crude oil had a crazy day after having been down considerably to as low as $43 and change which was also a key support level, to a swing to the green rising to 45.25. Currently in the next day of trading crude is sitting at just over $45.

Crude is currently in a middle ground with no clear direction at the moment. Having said that crude recently broke its long term uptrend which is displayed on the chart by the blue line which is a bearish signal for crude moving forward.

The key areas to look out for in the medium term are $46.25 to the high side and $43.05 on the low side. We would need to see a break out in either direction to determine its next move.

USD/JPY

Currencies around the globe experienced violent moves overnight as the market tried to digest the news that many did not expect to occur within the US election.

The USD/JPY pair fell sharply initially to a low of 101.18, before climbing sharply during yesterday's trade to also climb into the green reaching a high 105.88.

The technical's for this pair has recently turned bullish, after reversing it's long term down trend and clearing the previous resistance level now turned support of 103.88.

Momentum has now moved positive and with the strong reversal intra day the next resistance level for the pair is 106.83. Currently it's sitting at 105.57 at the time of writing this.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair had a similar outcome to the USD/JPY but in the opposite direction. After climbing strongly when news first came out that Trump was in the lead and looking likely to win the election. The EUR/USD pair jumped as high as the 1.13 level which also market the high end of the down trend level for this pair (see chart for trend line).

The currency also reversed course during the day and swung from a strong gain for the day giving up all the gains and falling for the day to reach a low of 1.090 level.

Momentum is only just positive and looks likely to swing back to the negative. The likely next stop for the EUR/USD is down to the next support level of 1.088 as shown in the chart below.

Gold

One thing that the gold bugs had expected was that if Trump would win that Gold would jumped sharply higher.

Unfortunately for Gold investors their prediction did not remain true as the trading day continued. Gold initially jumped spectacularly higher to a high of $1,336 for the day, before giving up practically all the gains to finish around $1,277 level.

Currently in the next day of trading Gold is slightly higher sitting at $1,286 at the time of writing.

Looking ahead for Gold it has 2 key levels to clear before it could regain it's uptrend. Its first resistance level is around the $1,305 - 08 level which it breached intra day but could not close above that level. If it clears this level the next level to close above is its downtrend line shown in the chart. During the highs reached Gold hit its downtrend at around $1,336.

XJO - Aussie Stock Market

Australia was one of the stock markets that was trading as the results were unfolding for the election yesterday. The Aussie market index the XJO was initially up in the morning when the market believed Clinton was winning. It quickly swung to the downside sharply following the US futures market, hitting a low of 5,052 which was around it's strong support level reached back in late June, before recovering considerably by the end of trade yesterday.

Today the XJO has risen sharply on the back of the swing in the US markets to around 5,300 level at the time of writing.

Since the XJO is currently sitting comfortably above its previous support level of 5,190, its next target is around 5,390 - 5395.

Keep in mind though that Momentum is still well in the negative at -142 as well as the current price is sitting below its 50 day moving average. The XJO would need to see buying to continue in the US markets to help lift the XJO out of its current slump.

Thanks for checking out my latest post.

Remember to share this with your friends by clicking on the Facebook & Twitter Icon's Below.

To Subscribe to Crush The Market click on the 3 options:  Facebook, Twitter or RSS Feed on the top right side toolbar.

Disclaimer: This post was for educational purposes only, and all the information contained within this post is not to be considered as advice or a recommendation of any kind. If you require advice or assistance please seek a licensed professional who can provide these services.

The Australian Banking sector is approaching a key resistance level for the 5th time and a break out above this congested area of resistance is key for the sector. We take a closer look at the sector and the key levels to watch out for confirmation of a breakout to higher levels.

The actual name of the stocks that make up the banking sector is called the ASX 200 Financial index excluding REIT's, which means the sector is predominately made up of the large and small banks and other financial intermediaries. If you would like to have a look at my review of the REIT sector last month you can by clicking REIT sector review. I excluded the REIT sector as the REIT sector continues to struggle from rising bond yields in October and the poor performance would skew the actual performance of the banks within the financials sector.

The Financial sector has been riding on a very long term uptrend that began after the considerable fall in 2008. Since making those lows the financials have been steadily climbing higher, on the back of rising profits from Australia's insatiable appetite for Real Estate. Thankfully for the bank's Australian's continue to increase their debt levels by taking out larger mortgages to participate in the Australian market that has been recently been described a bubble market. For more information on the Australian real estate bubble you can take a look by clicking: Debt Fueled Real Estate Bubble

ASX 200 Financials Ex REIT's Sector Review

After making all time record highs in March 2015 of 8419, the sector retreated back to the long term uptrend level over the next 18 months to around the 6060 level as it formed a down trend within its longer term uptrend. (See chart below)

Since bouncing off its uptrend line in February and March this year, the sector has been moving sideways in a tight range. However with only 5 trading days left in the month of October, the Financials index looks to have broken its downtrend pattern and has continued on its longer term trend (Labelled on the chart). In addition on a monthly basis the sector looks set to break out of its 6760 resistance level as it closed on Monday 24th October at 6750 only 10 points away from resistance.

On the weekly chart below the Financials ex REIT sector is slightly different. From the chart below you can see the resistance level is a little higher than the monthly chart at 6785. You can see that several times this year the sector attempted to close above the 6785 level and failed. However you will also notice that each time it failed to close higher, the retreat lower was shallower as it formed higher lows (shown with the blue up trending line), which is a bullish signal.

I have also circled the area on a weekly chart where it broke its downtrend pattern in July and August this year, which confirmed the end of the 18 month down trend within its large uptrend cycle.

If the sector can close above its 6785 level the next level of resistance is 7070, as shown in the chart. You will also notice for the sector to reach the previous record highs set in 2015, the sector has a number of resistance levels to clear along the way.

On a daily chart taking a much closer look at the sector, you will notice the resistance level is set a little higher again at 6815 compared to the monthly and weekly charts. I have marked with circle each attempt the sector made to close above this key area of 6815.

Considering the financials ex REIT sector has failed the close higher above 6815 level on 4 attempts, this resistance level is a very critical area for the sector to break in order to move to higher levels.

On a daily chart there are a number of technical indicators that provide a bullish case for breaking its resistance level of 6815 including but not limited to:

1. The chart has been forming higher lows indicated by the blue rising sloping line.
2. The closing price on the 24th October is above the 10 and 50 day moving average.
3. The sector has broken out of its down trend on a weekly and monthly basis.
4. The closing prices in 2016 has respected the longer term uptrend line.

The Market To Confirm If The Real Estate Bubble Will Continue

Since the Financials sector comprising mostly of the banks, if the market confirms a close above the key resistance levels mentioned above, this would indicate that the market believes the Australian Real Estate Bubble will continue in the medium term.

Alternatively failure to close above resistance, and break below its long term uptrend would indicate that the market believe both the bubble is coming to an end and that real estate prices are set to fall in Australia.

Subscribe to Crush The Market by clicking on the 3 options:  Facebook, Twitter or RSS Feed on the right side toolbar.

Disclaimer: This post was for educational purposes only, and all the information contained within this post is not to be considered as advice or a recommendation of any kind. If you require advice or assistance please seek a licensed professional who can provide these services.

The world has changed a great deal in the last 85 years in terms of how the markets and the economy functions as well as how we see them operating. Slowly over time we have added and implemented more and more policies, regulations, controls, mechanisms and various forms of stimulus in an attempt to smooth out business cycles booms and busts. Central Banks (CB's) and Governments have tried very hard to shorten the busts / recession cycle by lowering interest rates and extend the boom cycles in each and every business cycle over the last 85 years.

Now we fast forward to 2016 and the chief aim is to never experience a bust / recession / depression or deflation ever again. Central Banks (CB's) have taught us that they are all bad things and that we must avoid them at all costs.

These CB's have tried multiple policies and even some new experiments like negative interest rates in attempt to keep the global economy from experiencing a slow down or any amount of deflation. How bad is it really if the price of everyday items like food, rent and fuel becomes 1 or 2% cheaper each year. For the average income earner around the world their money will be allowed to go further if prices fall.

The more we have tried to control every aspect of the market, capitalism and the economy, the harder its becoming to not lose total control of these very things. However I believe we are already in the process of losing control of one of the most important things, the real economy. Presently all the Central Banks have done an excellent job at keeping the Financial assets Ie Stocks and Bonds markets up at or near record highs , while the actual economy has been unable to improve in real inflation adjusted terms over the last 10 years.

Real Assets At All Time Lows

If we take a look at the chart below, it illustrates perfectly the complete distortion of over 85+ years of controlling mechanisms, policies and Central Bank experiments have done to the relative value of real assets compared to financial assets.

This chart goes all the way back to 1925 and currently we are at an all time low, for real assets (Houses, commodities, fine art, jewellery etc) relative to financial assets of stocks and bonds. All the stimulus and attempts at controlling the markets and economy have only influenced the price of financial assets. Financial assets are more easily influenced and controlled through electronic exchanges, rather than real tangible assets which are much harder to manipulate on a global scale.

In the video below, Ray Dalio and company deliver a frank assessment on how we have reached the physically limits of the system. As we have artificially pushed markets and demand higher through debt accumulation, lowering interest rates to zero and by ballooning the derivatives market.

Increasing Volatility And Valuation Divergence

The chart below provides a good understanding on the ever increasing huge swings in volatility the financial markets have experienced. Central Banks began to introduce and try new stimulus and policy ideas in the early 2000's to reduce the busts / recessionary periods, causing large swings in the prices of the financial market as well as the valuations.

The most recent round of stimulus that began in 2009 with Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP), followed by QE 1, 2, 3 and negative interest rates have stretched out the valuation of the S&P 500 relative to US productivity. Up to 1995 / 96 US productivity moved in sync with the S&P 500 stock market. This is clearly no longer the case as the chart indicates a strong divergence in valuation.

This week we received the latest monthly industrial production number in the US and showed that the year on year figure remains negative.

Since mid 2014 you will notice that industrial production data used to coincide with the value of the S&P 500 index very well. Now industrial production has been falling for 2 years and the stock market is near nominal all time record highs.

One of the policies that the Central Banks have utilized to try and control the economy, markets and financial assets values is to physically adjust interest rates up and down. Since the 1980's when Paul Volcker raised interest rate to around 18% to combat high inflation, we have been steadily lowering them all the way to zero.

Why Lower Interest Rates No Longer Work?

Presently the federal funds rate is at 0.25% as you can see from the chart, however lower interest rates are no longer having the desired effects to stimulate the real economy anymore. One of the reasons for this is the fact we have reached the limits of our debt bubble cycle. We can no longer leverage ourselves any higher despite having interest rates at close to zero .

Leveraging Corporate America

One of the many side effects of lowering the federal funds rate to close to zero, has been the leveraging of US companies to levels higher than the 2007 and 2008 peak before the GFC crisis. Debt to equity is approaching 60% for non-financial companies, as the incentive to load up on debt has never been so high. But is it really helping corporate America?

What Is The Debt Being Utilized For?

The accumulation of more debt relative to assets would be ideal in the short term if companies were utilizing the debt to fund new innovation, capital expenditure and additional capacity for future growth.

The reality is that a large majority of the debt accumulation has been utilized to fund buybacks of company stocks to artificially boost earnings per share (EPS) which in turn helps stock prices rise despite the company profit not actually growing from this strategy.

The chart below shows that share buybacks have more than doubled since 2012 to $161 Billion in the 1st quarter of 2016, as more companies engaged in artificial growth strategies rather than invest in their own business models.

IBM a large technology company that has been an consistent innovator issuing several thousand new patents each year. However even though IBM still continues to issue several thousand patents, the company has been steadily increasing its debt levels (See chart below) to allow it to participate in stock buybacks.

IBM Increasing Debt & No Growth

These higher debt levels has allowed IBM to engaged in stock buybacks with the additional funds at their disposal. Unfortunately for IBM the stock buybacks have not helped the actual company as  it has struggled to grow over the last few years.

The chart below is a perfect example how a large company has tried to control its EPS through artificial boosting its profits with stock purchases funded through debt. However the actual result is that IBM's revenue (which can't be artificially adjusted through stock buybacks) has been falling since 2012 as the company continues to struggle to grow its top line and bottom line numbers.

Netflix, which is relatively young technology company that provide online streaming of TV content, is a company that has been investing large amounts of money into the companyto deliver new and original TV content, as it differentiates itself and reduces its reliance on licensing content from other media companies.

On the 18th October Netflix announced its latest quarterly result, which was above estimates for EPS and subscriber growth. However the interesting thing that investors didn't seem care about is that Netflix free cash flow is going the wrong way and accelerating. It burned through $506 million in a single quarter and just over $1 billion over 3 quarters. (See chart below) The stock ended up jumping around 19% after reporting its results.

Because of the huge drain of cash despite reporting a profit, Netflix did mention it will be tapping the markets for an increase in debt soon. Because interest rates are so low the market does not care that Netflix is essentially, borrowing more money to make new TV shows to attract more members. The current business model is simply not sustainable, especially when the company spends $142 to add one new subscriber.

If Interest rates were set by the market and were not manipulated by Central Banks the actual interest rate would be significantly higher to encourage savers to part with the capital. In this scenario Netflix business model would not survive in its current form.

The last chart summaries very simply, how "we have lost control of the real economy by trying to control everything". Global GDP estimates continues to decline as global stocks continue to increase, as Central Bank balance sheets fund global stocks higher.

Lastly this MUST WATCH video Rick Santelli makes a simple request to Central Banks.

Sources:

Forbes.com
Fred.stlouisfed.org
Zerohedge.com
Wsj.com

One by one real estate markets across the globe have begun to pop as the record real estate bubble has turned to a slow down in prices and growth. Multiple regions and real estate markets have begun to cool despite record low interest rates and Quantitative Easing (QE) stimulus.

Until recently the global real estate markets had been one of the best performing asset classes over the last 7 years, as Central Banks coordinated efforts to stimulate the economy in 2009 and further in 2012 - 2016 brought interest rates around the globe to record lows. Some countries even went negative with the objective to ensure GDP growth continues.

The Tipping Point Of Stimulus - Too Much Of A Good Thing

Eventually though any market will reach the limits of what artificial stimulus can do to prices and demand. Whether its auto / car market, think of the cash for clunkers stimulus and the more recent auto subprime loans bubble in the US, or  whats happening right now with real estate prices in different countries. Eventually demand begins to wane even when stimulus remains or increases. This happens when too much of a good things begins to take hold and stimulus actually becomes a negative to demand.

Pizza Eating Example:

If your hungry and you love pizza you decide go to a pizza restaurant. The demand for eating pizza is high, however eventually the demand or desire for more pizza will start to fall until you reach the point of when you don't want no more pizza. Your desire or demand will not change even if the pizza price falls by 50% making it easier to buy more. Why because you reach the limits of your own consumption and demand eventually disappears.

This simplified example works in a similar way to economic stimulus in asset markets as it does for the rise and fall in demand for pizza. Everything has a limit where extra stimulus stops being effective.

Luxury Manhattan Real Estate - Latest Market To Correct

The luxury real estate market in Manhattan is one of the latest markets to cool as it pop its real estate bubble. In the chart below you can see the declining trend in growth in prices in Manhattan. Since January 2015 where growth was around 8% pa, the level of growth has continued to fall each month to February 2016. Where the data shows that it has gone negative to close to a 1% fall in prices.

San Francisco area has been another hot real estate market that has started to cool down, despite being a trendy place to live and close to employment opportunities. With several big Technology companies headquarters located in the area.

In this short video below its give you a good understanding how the bullishness of the real estate market has tapered off, as the real estate sales and prices have soften and the time taken to sell has increased compared to a year ago.

One of the reasons why the San Francisco real estate market has started to cool despite low interest rates and stimulus is due to the fact the employment levels in the area has peaked, and has been stagnating since September last year with no growth recorded in employment in the area. This has effected rental demand and rental prices have begin to come down also weighing on the San Francisco real estate market.

Based on the indicators and the employment data the trend for this real estate market is not looking good going forward.

Across over to Vancouver real estate market in Canada, has experienced a spectacular fall in prices in a very short period of time. (See chart below)

Similar to San Francisco real estate market, Vancouver had experienced sharp rises in prices over the last few years as foreign buyers and local demand drove up prices. This was due to record low interest rates forcing investors to find a destination to earn a return on their capital, as cash and bonds income continued to fall. However recent tax increases for foreign buyers in Canada has effected demand dramatically in the area, with prices falling sharply since July this year.

The video below gives you a snapshot of the current Vancouver real estate market and the fallout from a sharp drop in home sales in the region. On a bright note they expect the market to remain relatively stable moving forward. Given the global backdrop in real estate trends this assumption may change.

In the UK commercial real estate has been experiencing a slowdown since the beginning of the year and was in the process of cooling before the Brexit vote dampened confidence for this asset class further causing further pain for the sector.

The graph below shows the trend in property deals value falling compared to the same month year ago. The trend is clearly falling faster as February through to May show steeper falls than January.

The falls in property deal values is most likely the consequence of income and capital growth returns continuing to fall each month since reaching the peak in October 2014 of 12.95% return, to the current return of 5.91% in March 2016. (See chart below)

Australia's real estate bubble has continued to remain red hot in bubble territory despite warnings from BIS and other groups on debt levels. To see the article click here Australia's debt addiction fuels bubble.

Despite the residential real estate market continuing to perform strongly in Australia, the Australian real estate investment trust (REIT) sector which predominately focuses on commercial real estate, has experienced sharp falls in prices since August. The REIT sector current price has fallen back to the levels set in April this year despite setting a yearly high back in July this year.

Why It Feels Like Everything Is OK

This chart below shows exactly why it appear that everything seems to be OK even though each month another real estate market across the globe starts to cool as their bubble pops and deflates.

The chart below shows global GDP expectations for 2016 overlapping the global stock market and global central bank balance sheet levels.

The chart shows the blue line which represents global central bank balance sheet continuing to increase, and the global stock market following this trend up with it since the start of this year.

What this indicates is that the global stock market is being held up by artificial stimulus as the stock market no longer reflects global GDP movements to the downside.

I'm aware that not every real estate market around the globe has started to pop. In fact some markets like China and Australia residential market are continuing to go higher.

The signs however are getting stronger as more and more real estate bubbles popping are emerging each month. Eventually more real estate markets will be effected, as the stimulus effect on demand starts to fade. Coupled with the fact global GDP continues to fall and the effect it will have on employment levels will cause real estate markets to fall in more regions.

Sources:

bloomberg.com - 1
bloomberg.com - 2
zerohedge.com - 1
zerohedge.com - 2
zerohedge.com - 3
theaustralian.com.au

China's remarkable growth in GDP has provided a large boost to global growth over the years. As the global economy and trade recovered from the GFC in 2009 and 2010, China was major contributor in reversing the global down turn and lifting GDP higher.

China Growth Fueled By Record Debt Levels

Its no secret anymore that the real reason, China has been able to rebound so strongly in the last 7 years, was because China has accumulated a record amount of debt to fuel its own GDP growth and keep demand for global trade strong.

Now that total debt to GDP is approaching 300% (see chart below) in China, its starting to become a drag on the largest economy in the world. As the economy continues to slow due to its debt bubble impacting growth, it increases the risk that China will actually threaten global growth as it deals with its own debt crisis.

If you take a look at the chart below from 2004 to 2008 period, you will notice that the debt to GDP ratio was stable and moving sideways at around 175% debt to GDP. This indicated that the economy was growing in sync with the level of debt growth within China's economy, which is a healthy sign of a growing stable economy despite at the time debt to GDP was high.

However when you look at the chart from 2008 to 2016, the debt to GDP starts to increase for the first few years and then accelerates as it approaches 2012 over the next 4 years to 2016. This trend is not a healthy sign for China's economy, as this indicates that the GDP growth has been unable to keep up with the level of debt taken on within the economy.

If debt is growing faster than GDP the debt stops becoming a contributor to growth and instead starts to drag on growth especially as debt to GDP ratio accelerates.

China To Drag Global Economy Down

Now that the debt has become a major problem in China, there have been a number of people and international groups including the BIS, Bank of England (BOE) and NAB Bank among others, who have raised concerns over the growing risks that China's debt bubble poses on the global economy.

The video below is from a former chief economist of the IMF Ken Rogoff discussing the key issues he believes China's slowdown poses on the global economy.

Debts Start To Pile Up

The chart below is from 2014 and shows the EBIT debt coverage of 780 bond issuers in China, and the level of interest payments to operating profits.

You can see that back in 2014 a number of debt issuers had a level of 100% or higher EBIT debt coverage. Meaning that the interest payments were higher than operating profits to pay for the loan. Leaving the only options of defaulting on the debts or borrowing more money to pay the interest. Borrowing money to pay existing interest and debt is the definition of a ponzi scheme.

The chart is very interesting even though its from 2014, as it layed the foundation for the problems companies in China are facing in 2016.

According to Reuters.com  25% of Chinese companies profits in the first half were not higher enough to service their debts and make their interest payments.

China's Debt Crisis Too Big For Government Stimulus To Be Effective.

Professor Steve Keen highlights in this video below, his agreement with BIS assessment of China's debt crisis, the subsequent slowdown in growth and how China grapples with its high debt levels.

Steve also suggest that the China's Government will attempt to stimulate the country to allow it to grow out of its debt problems, however he believes the problem is too big even for the Government to handle without experiencing a downturn in the economy.

Global Growth Slowdown To Continue

China's debt crisis and its subsequent slowdown within its own economy, is coming at an inconvenient time for the global economy. Many countries including the US economy are starting to experience a slow down as recent economic indicators highlight the slowdown in global growth.

Within the US it's becoming more apparent that the US economy is about to experience a recession or may already be in a recession unofficially.

To see the recent post on the slowingUS economy click on the link . Is the US in a recession?

Sources:
Reuters.com
zerohedge.com
rt.com
abc.net.au