Crude Oil Breaks Long Term Uptrend - Will We See A -33% Crash?

Crude Oil suffered its second weekly fall last week following Trump’s tweets on OPEC & Gas prices. So far the market appears to be paying attention to Trump’s attempt to lower Oil.

Looking closely at the weekly Crude Oil chart, we can see that prior to breaking its uptrend line this week, the price on the weekly chart moved all the way back to a previous support (now resistance) level of $64.30. Once it reached this level, it made a few failed attempts to close above resistance.

This week's follow through selling, saw the price action breach the uptrend line that began in late December ‘18 similar to when the S&P 500 market rally started. The last time Crude Oil breached its uptrend line back in Oct 18 (see circled area), we saw the price of Oil fall further. Potentially -33% lower.

However, this time the breaching of its uptrend line has so far had different movements relative to the breach last October ‘18. For one, the price action of Oil is still trading above its 10 week moving average. Back in Oct 18 when it closed below the uptrend line it also closed below its 10 week moving average.

Another interesting point is back in October ‘18, the S&P 500 weekly price action was following in very similar lock step to Oil prices, with the S&P 500 also breaching its uptrend line & closing below its 10 week moving average. However, this week the S&P 500 has made a new all time high price.

So going forward we have to be open minded that we could see further pull backs ahead for Oil, while at the same time also looking out for the possibility that this could be a pullback / consolidation, within a long term rally even though its broken its uptrend level.

To become more bearish with Oil, we have to see a breach of its current support that it has so far been respected at $61.45, as well as a close below the 10 week moving average this week. If that happens, our next level of support to look for is around $59.

Conversely, to become bullish on Oil, we need to see support of $61.45 held this week, with a clear break above its $64.30 resistance level. If we see this occur, this would be a very bullish signal & a likely move to $67.70 would occur shortly after.

So for now we have to wait and watch to see what unfolds to gain a better understanding on where we head next.

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