Apple share price finds itself in a rather interesting position on the weekly chart. If you take a look at the price action from the start of the 2019 you will notice its uptrend, with the price above the 52 weekly moving average, with higher lows formed.
 
However if you step back on longer time frame and view the chart you will notice that since December 2018 when Apple broke below the long term uptrend line, it has failed to move back above this trend on a consistent basis. In addition the price action has been bouncing off a large triangle pattern on the weekly chart for a third time.

If this were to fail and the price action broke to the downside this would be quite bearish for Apple & US stocks as the weighting of Apple would drag down the Nasdaq & S&P500. When observing triangle patterns the price action usually breaks in the direction of the trend, so this means the odds suggests that Apple either this week or in the coming weeks will break the current triangle pattern to the upside.

To confirm this a clear break of $212 resistance would need to occur. If this happens we will likely see a move towards $228 resistance. Based on the likely odds, this would also mean that the SPX index would hold its most recent bounce off the 200 day moving average and confirm a higher low, with a likely move to another higher high and new all time record high in the SPX.
 
Therefore the next few weeks will be critical for Apple investors & US stocks overall and likely dictate the trend going forward in the medium term for stocks.

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The Aussie stock index XJO last week broke a key uptrend that had been in place since the start of 2019. The index was able to see a recovery during the week, however unlike the US stock indices the XJO index did not recover back above the uptrend line that it failed.
 
So we can confirm that Aussie stocks are looking weak at the moment. However, is it time to go bearish with the latest price action? When it comes to trading, we have to be fluid and open to new information as it comes to make good decisions on likely direction.
 
We have covered the breach of the uptrend, however there are other problems for the bulls. Its sitting below the 10 & 52 day moving average, telling me stocks are under pressure & have lost momentum. The gains we saw since mid week were relatively small moves higher relative to the down days we saw leading into the breach of the uptrend.

Lastly, another interesting red flag for the XJO I covered with members after the Friday close, is that we have closed below the 10 week moving average for the first time in this uptrend rally (see chart below). This usually means that a trend has either ended or is about to end when I see this.

Going forward from here we could be witnessing a change of trend, however for now I have not gone bearish. For my stance to change and go bearish I need to see a confirmed lower high formed, with the 52 day MA turning down. In addition the price action ideally stays below the uptrend line. Lastly if we see a close below the lows recorded last week then I will be bearish Aussie stocks.
 
So for now we have to go with a day by day approach as we wait and see if the other conditions are satisfied. Especially as its possible with earnings season occurring this month that we resume a bullish structure.

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Google recently released its Q2 earnings to the market and looking at the monthly charts of its parent company Alphabet, the market appears quite happy with the most recent earnings results. The monthly chart only has a few trading days left to complete, with the current price action as of last Friday the 26th of July, Google is currently showing a breakout pattern above $1,227 resistance.
 
Considering that Google has been consolidating in a sideways pattern since early 2018, if Google can close above $1,227 for the monthly this will be a significant milestone for shareholders. The one important red flag with potential breakout pattern, is that volume for Alphabet is below its average monthly volume. There is another three trading days left of trading to increase volume levels, but given the earnings release and close to the end of the month you would like the volume to much higher to go along with this breakout potential.
 
On the bullish case if we do see a breakout pattern completed, we have a potential target of approximately $1,490-$1,500 resistance area on the monthly charts, which is based on the average distance away from the 52 month moving average that Google price action normally trades away from. Since those levels if achieved would be new all-time record highs, this is the only suitable method of targeting ahead.

The bearish case if Google price action was to fall back below $1,227 level by the end of July 19, then we would of have achieved a triple top resistance pattern. Which based on history would mean we would see a likely target back to $1020 support area, which would also mean that its long-term uptrend line would of also been breached if this was to be achieved.
 
Given the index weighting of both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Indices, the likely success or failure of Google's price action is likely to have a decent impact on these two indices over the coming months.

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Its been a long time since both Gold & Silver were receiving this much attention from traders and investors globally. Over the last few weeks we have witnessed a big shift on the longer term weekly charts that this current move is different from what we have seen over the last few years.
 
Gold finished the week at another 2019 high at $1,425, while also more importantly making a six year weekly high as well. The reason why I say that Gold has had a big shift is because we have recently seen on the weekly chart a break above a long six year sideways consolidation phase shown on the chart. It recently made a small retracement to retest the old resistance now support area of the consolidation phase, followed by a bounce higher off support.
 
In addition the 52 week moving average has now swung to the upside as the price action sits just above $1,415 support. Its possible we could see a move towards $1,480 resistance this week after we saw a retrace on Friday on the daily chart to a key support.
 
However its also important to note even though over the next several weeks & months that we could see the price at or above $1,564 resistance area based on the 52 weekly moving average range relative to price. I’m also expecting that we will encounter consolidation soon as well which could see either a pullback or sideways phase for a few weeks. Especially we hit $1,480 resistance before any consolidation.

Silver on the other hand has also had a big shift on the weekly chart even though its still lagging considerably relative to Gold’s recent price action. On the weekly chart Silver has had a big price move week breaching multiple resistance areas including the last previous weekly high area of $15.80-85, closing at just under the $16.20 resistance area after reaching a weekly high at the $16.60 which was also a key resistance.
 
Ideally this coming week it would be ideal to see another follow through of buying for the week and close above $16.20 resistance allowing it to consolidate the new higher high of this week. Given the past history of weekly potential price action moves away from the 52 week moving average, Silver has the ability over the coming weeks and months to move beyond $18.65 resistance.
 
Considering for Silver though its 52 week moving average has gone from sloping down to now flat, we could see a consolidation move coming soon as well allowing the 52 week moving average to swing to the upside and allow a breather before making its next big move higher. Given that we will have the FED FOMC meeting to decide rates at the end of the month of July, we could see a move higher for both Silver & Gold leading into the FED decision & sell the news / retrace after FOMC meeting.

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The Aussie Dollar appears to of made another breakout attempt out of its long term downtrend on the weekly chart. Despite a rate cut by the RBA last week sending the cash rate to a historic low of 1.00%, with more expected for the remainder of the year, the AUDUSD actually rose on the rate cut day. It proceeded to move higher during the week, only to fall strongly on Friday on the US jobs number, which created only a small pullback for the weekly chart after the prior breakout of the downtrend.
 
The important question going forward though is whether this breakout move is the start of a bigger move higher, or its just another false breakout signal for traders. Looking at the technicals for the weekly chart, you will notice the 52 week moving average is sloping lower, whilst the price action is trading below the 52 week moving average.
 
In addition the price action for now has not traded back above the 70.30 resistance area, which would signal a confirmed move out of the downtrend if it was to move above 70.30. This means, similar to the false breakout we saw back in March 2019, we have to wait & see what the price action does over the next few weeks to gain a clearer understanding on what’s happening for the AUDUSD.

To even consider being bullish on the Aussie dollar on a medium to long term basis on the weekly chart, we need to see clear higher lows, that consolidate above both 70.30 & 71.70 resistance areas in the coming weeks and months. If we this was to occur it would allow the 52 week moving average to begin to swing around eventually, providing positive momentum signal for a sustained move higher.
 
Since none of the confirming technical’s for a sustained move higher has occurred for now, the odds are in the favor of the bears. So its possible this could be another false breakout, however we would need to see a move back below the downtrend line to confirm this, with an initial target of 68.30 support if this was to occur.

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On Monday I discussed how Crude broke out above its resistance area & downtrend line. I said I would like to see consolidation and the 52 day MA turn back up before considering a long. Well since Monday, Oil has fallen sharply lower falling back inside the downtrend line, while also closing below $57.30 support and once again trading below the 52 day MA.
 
Given the 52 day MA is sloping down already and the setup we are witnessing this price action looks quite bearish at the moment. In the short term I'm looking for potentially a small retracement back to either 57.30 area, or a move back higher towards its downtrend line currently around $58.50.

However after the brief retracement process, I'm looking for Crude Oil to continue to roll over and head for $55.15 support as its first potential area to move towards.
 
Since on a macro level that global Manufacturing PMI's are rolling over at the moment, as well as supply rising from US Oil production its no surprise that Oil is weak at the moment. Since the last down move back a few weeks ago was around $50.60 level, its certainly possible we could reach this area over the next few weeks if we see follow through selling.

More importantly considering the 52 day MA is much lower now than 3 to 4 weeks ago, Crude Oil has the potential to move towards a lower area beyond the June lows.
 
However we are getting ahead of ourselves at the moment, especially considering how bullish US stocks are presently this could come to play on Oil & stocks this week and next since they are closely correlated.
 
Either higher stock prices can support Oil prices despite the bearishness or by forcing stocks to pullback lower in the short term. Its also important to note that on occasion the two assets classes have and can move in opposite directions for a while. But its certainty worth watching closely for the rest of this week.

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The US dollar index this week has taken a decent fall, as it well & truly confirms that the bullish uptrend is over, finishing the week at just above 96. The index has now made a series of lower highs and lower lows, whilst already breaching its uptrend from Sep 18 this week.
 
In the short term, I’m looking for a short term bounce soon as it retraces eventually to form another lower high, most likely at the 96.70 resistance, or as high as 97 given the strong move this week. In addition the US dollar index is now sitting on the lower bound of the downtrend channel.

After we see a retracement move, I’m looking to see the index to continue to make lower as it heads towards the strong support level of 95 over the medium term. If the move continues to make lower highs it will set up some strong moves ahead for Gold soon.

Gold has surprised many traders & investment banks, especially those that had recently held short positions again the yellow metal. Gold’s strong move this month has certainly got the markets attention now, but the bigger moves have not even started yet for Gold.
 
Over the next few weeks I’m expecting to see a retracement in line with a move higher in the short term for the US dollar index. Gold is in need of a consolidation on both the daily & weekly charts, with a likely move towards $1,350 level. Of course it all depends on whether Geopolitical tensions over Iran & US settle down this week.

Looking forward ahead for Gold, after we see one to few weeks of consolidation, I’m expecting big moves for Gold as its just broken out of 6+ year consolidation period on the weekly chart. At a conservative level I’m looking for Gold to at least retest its $1,900 highs made in 2001.

Given the intentions of the FED now and other central banks for the remainder of 2019 & 2020 towards monetary policy, its quite foreseeable that Gold moves beyond $2,000 USD over the longer term. I have added the next few resistance levels to watch over the medium term.

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Copper continues to remain under pressure as it sits close to the lows reached at the start of Jan 19. The price action is in a consolidation sideways pattern over the last two weeks, as Copper prices in a slowing weak global economy.
 
This contrasts with US stocks over the last two weeks that has seen a large bounce off its recent lows on the prospects that Powell & the FED are now looking cutting rates in 2019. The prospect of rate cuts is inflationary for hard assets, however Copper is not buying this premise at least for now.

Currently the price action for Copper is sitting between 26,680 resistance & 25,940 support. In addition the price is respecting its downtrend line as well. So moving forward we would need to see a clear breakout above both 26,680 & 27,135 resistance, before we see Copper following the bullishness of US stocks. Given the weakness its more likely we see the price move towards 25,940 soon.

Platinum's price action is showing a close resemblance to Copper's price action, as it also has not seen any recent bounce in the last two weeks of trading, while also hovering near its lows reached In Dec 18 & Feb 19.
 
Why this is relevant is because Platinum is utilized in multiple industrial applications in multiple industries within the manufacturing process. So just like Copper, the price action of Platinum at the beginning of the year saw a decent rally and new uptrend formed as the markets were pricing optimism on the global economy based on a trade deal being struck between the US & China.
 
Now the deal has collapsed, the price action has collapsed along with the deal. Platinum is also in a consolidation pattern as it currently is respecting $800 support after hitting $820 resistance last week. Given that global economic macro data remains weak as global trade slows, it likely like copper we see lower prices in the short term.

So if we see a break of $800 support, look for a move towards $780. If we see a move above $820 in the coming weeks, followed by a close above the 52 day moving average price of $845 - $850, then this would indicate a shift in optimism for the global economy.

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Last week price action for US stocks was remarkable from the start to the end of the week. On Monday we saw US stocks gapped lower on the threat of tariffs on Mexico by Trump. With each trading day we saw weak or negative economic news being released in the US. Yet what we saw was stocks were no longer moving lower. By the end of the week on Friday we had US Non-farm payrolls released and it was a massive miss, coming in at 75k new jobs instead of 177k estimates, but it didn’t matter. By the end of the day stocks continued to move higher, as it followed the momentum of buying that started from Tuesday. So why successive pieces of negative news & economic data being released did the S&P 500 index form a bullish engulfing pattern on increasing volume? The answer in one word is: FED.
 
Last week Mr Powell held its monthly press conference and the general point of the commentary by Powell was that the FED would do what is required to keep growth going in the US. Which the market interpreted as the FED is about to start cutting rates, with the likely hood of several cuts to come by the end of 2019. The reaction by the market was swift, as we saw the US dollar index roll over and break its uptrend, while Gold shot up this week over $100 an ounce as the market digested another pivot by the FED moving forward. Which is why I realized this week that this lows reached at the beginning of the week was likely to be the lowest prices we will see moving forward for the rest of the year.

Looking at the price action of the weekly chart for the SPX index, you can see that we have confirmed another higher low was formed, as the most recent low close was still above the lows reached back in the first week of March this year. This confirms on a weekly chart that the buyers are still in control of US stocks. The other interesting thing is that volume on the previous two weeks of falling prices was below the average volume for the index. With this week bullish engulfing candle stick pattern was formed on slightly above average volume, which also confirms the bullishness of the move.

This week I would be looking to see if there is follow through for the week in higher prices to close the week, to support the bullish pattern. If there is follow though its possible, we could see a move towards 2,930 resistance level either this week. If we see follow through buying then the likely support on a retracement is 2,873-75 level to look for in coming weeks. If we on the other hand see this move as a failed move, then prices would need to move back towards 2,785 support. However this is unlikely now the FED has given the green light for stocks to move higher regardless of how back the economy is. Well at least for now that is.
 
Lastly on a more of longer term look ahead, given the outlook of the FED and the interesting price action for US stocks, it would not surprise me at all if we see new all-time highs reached in the coming weeks or at the least next few months.

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