Crude Oil has broken out of its downtrend, jumping over 8% today after the Geo-political event over the weekend has effected a material amount of global supply of Oil. At this stage its unclear how long it will take to get supply back online.
 
So given this terrible event occurring does this mean we will see Oil retest its old highs over $100 USD a barrel? The short answer is it depends on what happens next. Will there be a retaliation for the attack and what will Oil producing countries do in the short term to deal with potential supply issues. 
 
So What Does The Charts Say?  
 
The charts are showing us that Crude Oil is clearly outside of its downtrend line sitting above its 10 & 52 day moving average indicating its now in a bullish stance. Currently its sitting just above $59.15 support after earlier breaching multiple resistance levels. If $59.15 support can hold today and for the remainder of the week, this would be quite bullish for Oil.

However if Geo political events settle down for the remainder of the week, its quite possible we see a move back down to $57.30 support. Given the quite large rejection tail today, it appears for now at least the market doesn’t see considerably higher prices. But this can change very quickly if events escalate globally.
 
If we were to see a move above $60.90 resistance, that can hold these levels, then its certainly possible we will begin to move closer $63 levels and higher. Its important to note that global demand for Oil is slowing so any moves higher will be short term in nature based on disruptions in current & potential future Oil supplies.
 
So at least for the next few weeks its likely to be quite volatile for Crude Oil markets as the market digest all the available information that comes online.

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Last week we saw the S&P 500 finally breakout of its sideways channel direction (green box) as news reports that China & US are back to talking again and are preparing to meet at the end of the month. The theory is that hopefully after over a year they somehow come to some sort of agreement. However interestingly the recent rally we saw last week for US stocks has been on below average volume as shown on the chart. Whenever I see this it tells me to be weary of any move seen. In other words its a red flag and can’t be relied upon as a trader.
 
Looking at the daily chart of the S&P 500, we can agree the positives is that it broke out of the box and is now trading above the 52 day moving average, which are bullish signals. On the other hand the price action has been hitting the original uptrend line, however as a resistance level rather than as a support level as seen back in June 19. Add in low average volumes overall on this spike higher and the weight of evidence isn’t totally in favor of the bulls.

Looking ahead for the week for the S&P 500 index, I'm looking to see if the price action can finally jump back above the long-term uptrend which it hasn’t been able to achieve yet. If we see a pullback this week to the support area of 2,940 and hold, this would be the ideal for the bulls. If it was then followed by a strong move higher with above average volume back inside the uptrend line either this week or next then I would agree that the S&P 500 will be heading for new record highs in coming weeks and months.
 
Given that the ECB are meeting this week to most likely introduce more QE & other stimulus, followed up by the FED next week for the FOMC. These two big events should keep US stocks elevated. However watch out for a wild card (Ie Trump tariff / trade tweet) and a move back under 2,940 area and back inside the green box this week, even though this is an unlikely scenario.

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The Nasdaq 100, which is the strongest of the main US stock indices finally broke its 2019 uptrend on Friday, as Trump was able to feed massive uncertainty in the markets, as investors lost complete confidence in Trump & most likely any hopes for the US to avoid a recession.
 
Leading up to Friday's shocking sell off in US stocks, the muted rally we saw during last week of small moves higher was in fact made on terribly low volume, which is considerable below the daily average.
 
The low volume during a move higher in trend, was similar to the slow run higher in July 19 to new all-time highs. This was also just before a strong sell off on increased volume that occurred. If you’re paying attention this would have been a big red flag for traders & investors.
 
Another red flag for the Nasdaq 100, is that we have confirmed a lower high and lower low signaling a change in control from buyers to sellers in the daily charts.

Looking ahead for the Nasdaq 100, the support area of 7,400 is the last final confirmation required from the market before we can confirm a change of trend. Therefore Monday's trading is super important for short term direction for the Nasdaq especially if we clearly close below this area. A breach of 7,400 support would indicate the next support level of 7,025 for the Nasdaq 100
 
Lastly unless there is some miracle from the Central Banks with more intervention, and we see a big shift in bullishness. With the Nasdaq 100 somehow jumping back above its uptrend line and above the 52 day moving average (green line).  We are likely looking at the start of the end of the bull market in US stocks.

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Apple share price finds itself in a rather interesting position on the weekly chart. If you take a look at the price action from the start of the 2019 you will notice its uptrend, with the price above the 52 weekly moving average, with higher lows formed.
 
However if you step back on longer time frame and view the chart you will notice that since December 2018 when Apple broke below the long term uptrend line, it has failed to move back above this trend on a consistent basis. In addition the price action has been bouncing off a large triangle pattern on the weekly chart for a third time.

If this were to fail and the price action broke to the downside this would be quite bearish for Apple & US stocks as the weighting of Apple would drag down the Nasdaq & S&P500. When observing triangle patterns the price action usually breaks in the direction of the trend, so this means the odds suggests that Apple either this week or in the coming weeks will break the current triangle pattern to the upside.

To confirm this a clear break of $212 resistance would need to occur. If this happens we will likely see a move towards $228 resistance. Based on the likely odds, this would also mean that the SPX index would hold its most recent bounce off the 200 day moving average and confirm a higher low, with a likely move to another higher high and new all time record high in the SPX.
 
Therefore the next few weeks will be critical for Apple investors & US stocks overall and likely dictate the trend going forward in the medium term for stocks.

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The Aussie stock index XJO last week broke a key uptrend that had been in place since the start of 2019. The index was able to see a recovery during the week, however unlike the US stock indices the XJO index did not recover back above the uptrend line that it failed.
 
So we can confirm that Aussie stocks are looking weak at the moment. However, is it time to go bearish with the latest price action? When it comes to trading, we have to be fluid and open to new information as it comes to make good decisions on likely direction.
 
We have covered the breach of the uptrend, however there are other problems for the bulls. Its sitting below the 10 & 52 day moving average, telling me stocks are under pressure & have lost momentum. The gains we saw since mid week were relatively small moves higher relative to the down days we saw leading into the breach of the uptrend.

Lastly, another interesting red flag for the XJO I covered with members after the Friday close, is that we have closed below the 10 week moving average for the first time in this uptrend rally (see chart below). This usually means that a trend has either ended or is about to end when I see this.

Going forward from here we could be witnessing a change of trend, however for now I have not gone bearish. For my stance to change and go bearish I need to see a confirmed lower high formed, with the 52 day MA turning down. In addition the price action ideally stays below the uptrend line. Lastly if we see a close below the lows recorded last week then I will be bearish Aussie stocks.
 
So for now we have to go with a day by day approach as we wait and see if the other conditions are satisfied. Especially as its possible with earnings season occurring this month that we resume a bullish structure.

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Google recently released its Q2 earnings to the market and looking at the monthly charts of its parent company Alphabet, the market appears quite happy with the most recent earnings results. The monthly chart only has a few trading days left to complete, with the current price action as of last Friday the 26th of July, Google is currently showing a breakout pattern above $1,227 resistance.
 
Considering that Google has been consolidating in a sideways pattern since early 2018, if Google can close above $1,227 for the monthly this will be a significant milestone for shareholders. The one important red flag with potential breakout pattern, is that volume for Alphabet is below its average monthly volume. There is another three trading days left of trading to increase volume levels, but given the earnings release and close to the end of the month you would like the volume to much higher to go along with this breakout potential.
 
On the bullish case if we do see a breakout pattern completed, we have a potential target of approximately $1,490-$1,500 resistance area on the monthly charts, which is based on the average distance away from the 52 month moving average that Google price action normally trades away from. Since those levels if achieved would be new all-time record highs, this is the only suitable method of targeting ahead.

The bearish case if Google price action was to fall back below $1,227 level by the end of July 19, then we would of have achieved a triple top resistance pattern. Which based on history would mean we would see a likely target back to $1020 support area, which would also mean that its long-term uptrend line would of also been breached if this was to be achieved.
 
Given the index weighting of both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Indices, the likely success or failure of Google's price action is likely to have a decent impact on these two indices over the coming months.

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Its been a long time since both Gold & Silver were receiving this much attention from traders and investors globally. Over the last few weeks we have witnessed a big shift on the longer term weekly charts that this current move is different from what we have seen over the last few years.
 
Gold finished the week at another 2019 high at $1,425, while also more importantly making a six year weekly high as well. The reason why I say that Gold has had a big shift is because we have recently seen on the weekly chart a break above a long six year sideways consolidation phase shown on the chart. It recently made a small retracement to retest the old resistance now support area of the consolidation phase, followed by a bounce higher off support.
 
In addition the 52 week moving average has now swung to the upside as the price action sits just above $1,415 support. Its possible we could see a move towards $1,480 resistance this week after we saw a retrace on Friday on the daily chart to a key support.
 
However its also important to note even though over the next several weeks & months that we could see the price at or above $1,564 resistance area based on the 52 weekly moving average range relative to price. I’m also expecting that we will encounter consolidation soon as well which could see either a pullback or sideways phase for a few weeks. Especially we hit $1,480 resistance before any consolidation.

Silver on the other hand has also had a big shift on the weekly chart even though its still lagging considerably relative to Gold’s recent price action. On the weekly chart Silver has had a big price move week breaching multiple resistance areas including the last previous weekly high area of $15.80-85, closing at just under the $16.20 resistance area after reaching a weekly high at the $16.60 which was also a key resistance.
 
Ideally this coming week it would be ideal to see another follow through of buying for the week and close above $16.20 resistance allowing it to consolidate the new higher high of this week. Given the past history of weekly potential price action moves away from the 52 week moving average, Silver has the ability over the coming weeks and months to move beyond $18.65 resistance.
 
Considering for Silver though its 52 week moving average has gone from sloping down to now flat, we could see a consolidation move coming soon as well allowing the 52 week moving average to swing to the upside and allow a breather before making its next big move higher. Given that we will have the FED FOMC meeting to decide rates at the end of the month of July, we could see a move higher for both Silver & Gold leading into the FED decision & sell the news / retrace after FOMC meeting.

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The Aussie Dollar appears to of made another breakout attempt out of its long term downtrend on the weekly chart. Despite a rate cut by the RBA last week sending the cash rate to a historic low of 1.00%, with more expected for the remainder of the year, the AUDUSD actually rose on the rate cut day. It proceeded to move higher during the week, only to fall strongly on Friday on the US jobs number, which created only a small pullback for the weekly chart after the prior breakout of the downtrend.
 
The important question going forward though is whether this breakout move is the start of a bigger move higher, or its just another false breakout signal for traders. Looking at the technicals for the weekly chart, you will notice the 52 week moving average is sloping lower, whilst the price action is trading below the 52 week moving average.
 
In addition the price action for now has not traded back above the 70.30 resistance area, which would signal a confirmed move out of the downtrend if it was to move above 70.30. This means, similar to the false breakout we saw back in March 2019, we have to wait & see what the price action does over the next few weeks to gain a clearer understanding on what’s happening for the AUDUSD.

To even consider being bullish on the Aussie dollar on a medium to long term basis on the weekly chart, we need to see clear higher lows, that consolidate above both 70.30 & 71.70 resistance areas in the coming weeks and months. If we this was to occur it would allow the 52 week moving average to begin to swing around eventually, providing positive momentum signal for a sustained move higher.
 
Since none of the confirming technical’s for a sustained move higher has occurred for now, the odds are in the favor of the bears. So its possible this could be another false breakout, however we would need to see a move back below the downtrend line to confirm this, with an initial target of 68.30 support if this was to occur.

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